6 REASONS THE EDMONTON OILERS WILL NOT WIN THE 2025 STANLEY CUP
With the preseason just weeks away, excitement is building up among hockey fans. The Edmonton Oilers fell one win short of winning the Stanley Cup last season and wasted no time improving the roster this offseason. While there are many reasons to believe they can win the 2025 Stanley Cup, there are also a lot of concerns that could ultimately lead the team short of their goal.
Defensive Depth Concerns
The first, and most glaring, concern the Oilers will face is in the defense, specifically the bottom four. The team lost Philip Broberg, Cody Ceci, and Vincent Desharnais this offseason. While none were massive contributors to the defense, they each played a role in getting the team to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Even with their mishaps, losing three defensemen will hurt the team, at least to begin the regular season.
This is not an issue that cannot be overcome, but there are a lot of hurdles to climb. The first hurdle is figuring out the defensive pairings. 24-year-old Ty Emberson was brought in from the San Jose Sharks and has experience playing top-four minutes. However, he has just 30 NHL games in his career, all last season with the last-place Sharks, meaning he has never played a shift with as much on the line as the Oilers will be playing for. He previously played for Kris Knoblauch with the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL, so there is reason for optimism there, but only time will tell if he is ready to play a big role in the Oilers top four.
Additionally, the Oilers still need to figure out who their sixth defenseman is. Assuming Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak remain on the left side, there is still a need for a third, right-handed defenseman. Josh Brown has not performed well enough in his career to be deemed capable of being the third-pairing defenseman on a Stanley Cup-winning team, and while Troy Stecher had some strong stretches last season, he, too, is in a similar boat to Brown. The Oilers could still sign a veteran like Kevin Shattenkirk or Justin Schultz to a PTO, but even then there is a lot of uncertainty.
No Cap Space
If the Oilers decide to begin the regular season with their current roster, it is not like they would be able to easily make a midseason trade to improve the blueline. As of now, the team has $945,833 in projected cap space. Enough salary could be accrued to add a solid defenseman at the 2025 Trade Deadline, but without a first-round pick in the 2025 Draft, it will be hard to find an affordable, impactful defenseman.
Ekholm’s Age
Mattias Ekholm had a career year last season, posting career highs in goals (11), points (45), primary points (34), hits (136), Corsi (57%), Fenwick (57%), goals percentage (59.5%), and expected goals percentage (58.6%). Together, he and Evan Bouchard formed the best defensive pairing in the NHL. However, at 34 years old, he could begin to regress.
Not only is it a longshot for Ekholm to repeat last season’s success, but a significant drop-off seems inevitable. Historically, defensemen regress quicker than forwards, and given Ekholm’s extensive workload last season, especially in the playoffs, a lot can go wrong. Hopefully, this will not be the case, but Oilers fans should undoubtedly temper expectations for their top-pairing defenseman.
Lack of Forward Chemistry
As great of an offseason as the Oilers had, there is a lot of uncertainty on the roster, and the forward core is no exception. The team moved on from Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, and Ryan McLeod and brought in Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson, and Vasily Podkolzin.
The Oilers objectively improved their roster, losing a bit of speed and physicality but adding experience, offense, depth, and reliability. However, there is no guarantee the additions will mesh well with the current roster, posing potential for concern. While this is unlikely to be the case, the Oilers’ chemistry in their 2024 Playoff run was evident and played a massive reason the team made it as far as they did. While they have an 82-game regular season to gain chemistry, the potential for roadblocks could pose a risk once playoff time comes around.
Minimal Untapped Potential
When the Oilers lost Broberg and Holloway to the St. Louis Blues via offer sheets, they did not lose much on-ice impact. Neither skater played a pivotal role in the team’s playoff run last season, and neither was expected to break out this season. However, each player’s age and upside brought reason for excitement and optimism on an otherwise old roster. Neither player will be terribly missed, but the lack of potential on the current roster is concerning.
Outside of Podkolzin, the Oilers’ youngest forward is 27-year-old, Connor McDavid. On the entire roster, the second youngest player is Emberson, who is just 24 years old. This is a good or bad thing, depending on how you look at it, but regardless, the lack of untapped potential could prove detrimental down the stretch.
Goaltending’s Experience
Stuart Skinner’s 2023-24 season was a tale of two halves. Prior to Dec. 21, he had a .884 SV% and -7.39 goals saved above expected (GSAx), the fourth lowest of all goaltenders at the time. After Dec. 21, he had a .916 SV% and 20.46 GSAx, the fourth-best of all goaltenders in that period. Which goaltender the Oilers will get is a mystery, and with minimal cap space and trade assets, the team has put a lot of faith in such a question mark.
Calvin Pickard is projected to back up Skinner, and he is unlikely to have what it takes to step into the starter’s net if needed. Before his 23-game run last season, he won just seven games in the past six seasons. In those seasons, he gave up close to four goals per game. He has come up clutch before, but his limited track record is not a very confident asset for Oilers fans.
The Oilers made it to the Stanley Cup Final last season, so it is clear this current group has what it takes to win. However, there are quite a few issues the team needs to address if they hope to build on last season’s success.
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2024-09-02T14:46:55Z dg43tfdfdgfd