2024-2025 NHL TEAM PREVIEW: OTTAWA SENATORS
LAST SEASON
With talented forwards in place, adding 2023 deadline acquisition Jakob Chychrun to the blueline and, last summer, veteran netminder Joonas Korpisalo in goal was supposed to end the Ottawa Senators’ lengthy postseason drought. Instead, the organization took a painful step backward.
Chychrun struggled defensively on the right side (team-worst -30), Korpisalo flopped (21-26-4, .890 SV%), and, among the forwards, only captain Brady Tkachuk (37 G, 74 P in 81 GP), veteran Claude Giroux (21 G and 43 A in 82 GP), and Drake Batherson (28 G, 66 P in 82 GP) managed full, productive seasons.
Head coach D.J. Smith and GM Pierre Dorion finally ran out of rope before the turn of the year, and the team sputtered to 78 points and another lost season under interim bench boss and team legend Jacques Martin (26-26-4).
President of hockey operations Steve Staios has the reins now, and the 1,000-game NHL veteran made his first big splash at the helm by acquiring 2023 Vezina winner Linus Ullmark for Korpisalo and a late first-round pick. Can Ullmark and new head coach Travis Green lead the wayward Sens out of the desert?
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Linus Ullmark, G
David Perron, LW
Nick Jensen, D
Mike Amadio, RW
Nick Cousins, LW
Noah Gregor, LW
Departures
Jakob Chychrun, D (Wsh)
Mathieu Joseph, LW (Stl)
Joonas Korpisalo, G (Bos)
Dominik Kubalik, RW (Swiss NL)
Erik Brannström, D (Col)
Parker Kelly, LW (Col)
OFFENSE
The Sens’ offense finished 18th despite boasting big names in its top six, but their uninspiring finish is slightly misleading.
Vladimir Tarasenko signed off on a trade to Florida; nagging injuries wore down franchise player Tim Stützle; Josh Norris endured another season-ending surgery; Shane Pinto picked up a half-season suspension for gambling. Ottawa never held a full deck, and even average luck will make them a much more dangerous team in 2023-24.
That starts with Stützle, who scored 21 fewer goals last season (19) than in 2022-23 (39). He still produced at top-six scoring (70 P in 75 GP), and if he’s fully recovered from lingering wrist and shoulder ailments, he can be the Senators’ first superstar since Erik Karlsson’s heyday.
Reuniting Stützle and frequent linemate Giroux with the imposing Tkachuk would give Travis Green an elite unit to build around. Since 2022, the Tkachuk-Stützle-Giroux line has controlled more than 58% of expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances.
Stacking the first line with their three biggest weapons wasn’t an option for the injury-plagued Senators last season, but David Perron’s arrival in free agency should give them enough depth to do so in 2024-25. Like his presumptive new linemate Batherson, Perron is a physically strong playmaker who does damage on the power play; 17 of his 47 points came with the man advantage last season.
Perron and Batherson’s passing will give Norris and his huge shot first dibs as their center. Few pivots can fire the puck like him (31 G per 82 GP), but the 24-year-old must produce early and often to keep Shane Pinto off his tail.
Pinto is by far the better defender and play driver. His 56.44% share of expected goals led the Sens, while Norris’s 44.56% mark was third-worst among the team’s full-time players. The Long Island native Pinto scored at a 54-point pace last season, but after falling off down the stretch (6 P in final 20 GP), he may have to settle for matchup duty to start 2024-25.
Chychrun and his defense-leading 41 points are gone, but Thomas Chabot was slick as ever despite injury frustrations last season (30 P in 51 GP). Jake Sanderson, already the Sens’ top D-man at 22, has some offensive instincts (10 G, 38 P) as well.
DEFENSE
There was a massive gulf between Ottawa’s expected goals against (184.7) and the actual number (210), but their struggles in 2022-23 weren’t all on Korpisalo. Senators fans have long lamented the team’s lax backchecking and sloppy zone exits (their 797 giveaways were third most).
Where Dorion threw together as much talent as he could afford and hoped for the best, Staios has spent his offseason trying to build a more coherent group. That meant clearing up a logjam on the left side by trading Chychrun to the Washington Capitals for veteran righty Nick Jensen. Getting the 34-year-old Jensen and a third-rounder in exchange for the more dynamic Chychrun wasn’t great value, but it gave the team a badly needed shutdown option on the right side.
Chabot, whose defensive chops were already suspect, played with fellow lefty puck movers Chychrun and Erik Brannstrom when healthy in 2023-24. Now, Chabot will likely partner with Jensen, a speedy, defense-first blueliner. Jensen’s possession metrics were among the worst on the Capitals, but he drew some brutal matchups without a full-time partner. The veteran was excellent alongside Dmitry Orlov from 2019-2023 and should bounce back with ‘Chabby’ around to carry the puck.
Chabot and Jensen will be joined in the top four by the No. 1 pair of Sanderson and Artem Zub. Sanderson is an all-situations monster and one of the Senators’ true building blocks along with Stützle and Tkachuk. The American’s elite mobility and active stick allow him to stifle opponents without taking unnecessary risks.
Zub brings a bit more physicality (122 hits, first among Ottawa defensemen), and is the perfect low-maintenance complement to Sanderson. The duo was quietly one of the league’s best shutdown pairings last season, dictating more than 55% of expected goals and high-danger chances in 68 games together.
The Senators’ down-lineup defensive depth is paper thin, but Staios and Green expect their new-look bottom six to pick up the slack. Pinto, two-way forward Michael Amadio, and tireless agitator Ridly Greig give Green the ingredients for a formidable checking line.
GOALTENDING
Linus Ullmark is the latest savior in the Senators’ cage, but Ottawans can be forgiven if they aren’t planning the parade yet. Since Craig Anderson left the team in 2020, Matt Murray, Filip Gustavsson, Cam Talbot, and Korpisalo are just a few of the names that have failed in goal at Canadian Tire Centre. The Senators are thrilled to have the Swede onboard, but in a role where All-Stars and champions alike have failed, they can’t take anything for granted.
The good news is that Ullmark is better than all those other guys; he’s posted five consecutive seasons with a save percentage above .915. He will never replicate his historic 2022-23 season (40-6-1, 1.89 GAA, .938 SV%), but Ullmark is a top-10 goalie in his prime. Can the 30-year-old maintain an elite level over 55+ starts? He’s never logged more than 49 appearances.
The remainder of the workload will fall on Anton Forsberg, a usually capable backup whose worst season in Ottawa couldn’t have come at a worse time. He made enough big saves to win some games (15-12), but his raw numbers (3.21 GAA, .890 SV%) were nearly identical to the ones that ran Korpisalo out of town.
Forsberg has had good seasons for the Senators, including one as de facto starter in 2021-22 (.917 SV% in 46 GP). Perhaps he can turn it around in limited reps behind his countryman.
COACHING
If rapturous applause greeted the Ullmark trade, you could almost hear a sigh out of Eastern Ontario when the team appointed Travis Green as head coach.
It’s not that Green is a bad option. His lackluster record in Vancouver (133-147-4) was more from a painful rebuild and lack of organizational support, two handicaps Senator fans are familiar with, than actual incompetence.
Still, in passing on more attractive options like Craig Berube and Dean Evason for an under-the-radar (see: cheap) candidate, Staios and owner Michael Andlauer invited unwelcome comparisons to the latter’s penny-pinching predecessor Eugene Melnyk.
The best way Green can shut his skeptics up is by stamping his identity on the new-look roster, something D.J. Smith never managed in parts of five seasons in charge. He needs to raise the standard of a team that hasn’t been run like an NHL outfit in recent seasons.
That will start in camp, where the 53-year-old is known to put his players through the wringer. Maybe bag skates are just what the Sens need to shake off the notoriously slow starts of the Smith era.
ROOKIES
Ottawa is up against the cap without much depth to show for it, so the club would love for its youth to take another step in 2023-24.
Undersized winger Angus Crookshank was a stud for AHL Belleville last season (24 G, 46 P in 50 GP) and impressed in limited minutes (3P, 10:07 ATOI in 13 GP) with the big club. He’s scrappy enough to fight for a spot on the fourth line alongside penalty killer Noah Gregor and universally maligned utility man Nick Cousins. Perhaps more importantly, Crookshank will continue his battle with Vancouver Canucks’ prospect Jett Woo for the title of coolest name in hockey.
If Cousins moves out to the wing at any point during the season, former Ohio State standout Stephen Halliday (9P in 7 playoff GP for Belleville) and physical centerman Zack Ostapchuk (17 G as AHL rookie) could take his place in the middle. As it stands, they have more to gain from big AHL minutes than Crookshank.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Is winning contagious? In hockey, winning and losing aren’t just the two possible outcomes of a contest. They are tangible conditions that affect organizations from top to bottom. The Senators know that well and it showed in their offseason shopping spree. Of their six major additions, only Perron, one of the heroes of the Blues’ 2019 Stanley Cup triumph, did not play in the 2024 postseason. Amadio (2023) and Cousins (2024) had their names etched on the Cup more recently. Travis Green’s biggest challenge behind the bench is changing the culture, and an influx of winning DNA should give him a head start.
2. What should the Senators do with Josh Norris? There’s no doubting Norris’s talent. He’s a pure sniper and an absolute weapon on the power play, where he deposited 16 of his 35 goals during the 2021-22 season. That encouraging campaign bought him an 8-year, $7.95 million AAV extension, but he’s needed shoulder surgery in both seasons since. He’s had three major operations and another two lengthy absences from the same chronic injury. Pinto is already more well-rounded, and the Senators might be ready to cut bait on the Michigan alum. No other team would touch Norris’s contract given his injury record, and another abridged season could lead to LTIR-induced semi-retirement for the 25-year-old. It’s not a fate anyone would have imagined after his breakout sophomore season.
3. Can Linus Ullmark break a troubling trend? It hasn’t been easy for the Senators to draw free agents to Ottawa. Their building has aged poorly, their previous owner was averse to spending money, and they lack the rich history of the rival Toronto Maple Leafs or the nearby Montreal Canadiens. Without the on-ice excellence of the Alfredsson-era teams to cover the difference, they’ve had to draft or trade for their talent. That’s not good enough when the players they trade for won’t stick around anyway; Alex DeBrincat forced his way out of Ottawa after costing them a first, and Staios moved on from Chychrun to avoid a similar embarrassment. Ullmark is out of contract next summer and, like DeBrincat and Chychrun, cost the team some valuable draft capital. Can the Sens convince him their project is worth a long-term commitment?
PREDICTION
This isn’t the year the Senators return to the playoffs. There’s a lot to like about their lineup on paper, but an injury to Zub or Giroux, let alone Ullmark, would expose just how thin their depth is. The Sens would need a clean bill of health and more than a few other teams to slip up to contend in the Atlantic; that’s more luck than the team has had in a long time. If Ottawa can at least commit to a brand of hockey and stay in the race from wire to wire like last season’s Flyers, they’ll create a blueprint for success in 2025 and beyond.
Want more articles like this? Follow Daily Faceoff on MSN to see more of our exclusive NHL content.
More must-reads:
2024-09-13T18:03:37Z dg43tfdfdgfd