WHAT CAN WE GATHER FROM LEO JIMéNEZ’S TWO-MONTH BIG-LEAGUE STINT?
Officially, Toronto Blue Jays rookie shortstop Leo Jiménez technically arrived in the majors on June 26. Or at least, that’s what the record books will show after he was inserted into the suspended game that was resumed earlier this week at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. In actuality, though, his big-league career won’t span two months until the calendar flips to September.
Having said all this, the 23-year-old — who’s been with the organization since signing as an international free agent in 2017 — has certainly impressed on multiple fronts during his first taste of action at this level.
Most notably, Jiménez’s major-league-calibre defence has been as advertised thus far, if not even a bit better. There have been ample opportunities in the field, particularly at short, with Bo Bichette on the IL recovering from a calf injury, and he’s taken full advantage of them.
In 325.1 innings split between shortstop and second base, the 5-foot-11 infielder has already logged three defensive runs saved, two at short and one at second. At the same time, he has made a few mistakes, committing a trio of errors — two fielding and one throwing. However, those miscues are to be expected from someone in their first big-league campaign.
Regardless of his position on the diamond, Jiménez’s fielding was arguably his most appealing trait as a minor-leaguer, with many labelling him as a glove-first prospect. Entering 2024, FanGraphs and Baseball America scored his defence with a 50-level grade, while MLB Pipeline’s grade was a tad higher at 55. Either way, the overall belief was his run-prevention tools far exceeded his run-creation ones.
Nearly two months in — depending on your opinion regarding the resumed suspended game — that has been the case for Jiménez. He hit just .210 and only recorded three extra-base hits (all doubles) over his first 22 games in the majors, including the four at-bats he totalled in his technical debut on June 26.
While the right-hander’s bat started cold, it has come to life over the last few weeks and has surprisingly featured considerable power in that span. In 16 games since Aug. 7, 10 of his 13 hits have resulted in extra bases, including a trio of home runs. Additionally, he’s also produced a .265/.362/.592 slash line, a .327 isolated power and a 165 wRC+.
This recent power surge from Jiménez has been encouraging, even if it’s only spanned a tiny sample size of just over 50 plate appearances. Historically, he hasn’t displayed this type of thump because of a contact-oriented hitter profile, and that’s likely a reason to apply some skepticism regarding its sustainability moving forward.
An element of positive batted-ball fortune seems to have played a factor, given his elevated .345 BABIP and below-average hard-hit rate of 34.4 per cent since Aug. 7. While he does own an 18.8-per-cent barrel rate in this span, most of those have come off fastballs, a pitch type he’s registered a 23.8-per-cent barrel rate against this month.
To Jiménez’s credit, though, he displayed modest levels of extra-base power at triple-A Buffalo earlier this season, clubbing eight doubles and seven home runs while posting a .431 SLG and .160 ISO over 57 games. He also backed those results with encouraging underlying metrics such as his .458 xSLG and 43.8-per-cent hard-hit rate.
But you could argue the legitimacy of that minor-league production due to the inflated International League environment.
What can’t be debated is Jiménez’s batted-ball output, which has included a 50-per-cent ground-ball rate over his previous 16 contests. Since many of those haven’t featured eye-popping exit velocities, chances are they’ll eventually start turning into outs rather than finding holes for hits.
Another troubling sign that can’t be ignored is he’s struck out 18 times and earned only four walks — albeit while also being hit four times — over this recent span. That has caused his overall strikeout and whiff rates to climb to 30.4 and 28.5 per cent, respectively, accompanied by a measly 5.8-per-cent walk rate.
Lately, many of those swings and misses have occurred inside the strike zone, with over a quarter of them on upper-quadrant fastballs.
There’ll soon be a shift in how pitchers attack Jiménez. He’ll likely face fewer fastballs — with most of the ones he does receive finishing in the upper third of the strike zone — while witnessing an increased dose of breaking balls and off-speed pitches, given his 38.6-per-cent whiff rate against those offerings this month.
How Jiménez responds to that type of adjustment will be among the most intriguing storylines to monitor the rest of the way. But, one narrative his two-month big-league stint has proven is he has the potential to develop into at least a serviceable contributor at this level.
What could that mean for his role in 2025? That’s where these final four-plus weeks of the season may prove critical. He certainly possesses the defensive skills to be more than a reserve player. His offensive ceiling, however, still leaves much to be desired.
Jiménez may end up featuring slightly more power upside than previously anticipated, although probably not by a significant margin. He likely isn’t someone who has 20-home-run potential in his future. Because of that, opposing pitchers won’t be persuaded to pitch around him, limiting the odds of his walk totals increasing.
To be an impact hitter without slugging, Jiménez would need to reach base safely at a considerable clip, a feat that’ll be difficult to accomplish as long as his strikeout rate hovers around 30 per cent. Given the amount of swing-and-miss in his profile, hitting for a high batting average will also be very challenging.
This isn’t to suggest Jiménez can’t help the Blue Jays in their quest to return to the playoffs in 2025. But perhaps it’d be wise to temper expectations about his potential role next season, like, for example, envisioning him as a full-time replacement at shortstop if Bo Bichette’s traded this winter. Putting that plan, or any version of it, in motion almost certainly would be a major miscalculation by the front office.
If Toronto were to trade Bichette over the off-season, the franchise’s best shot of staying competitive next season would probably need to come in the form of signing an impact shortstop in free agency like Willy Adames. Otherwise, turning over the position to a group of prospects likely wouldn’t supply sufficient value compared to the two-time All-Star’s output.
From what Jiménez has shown early on, there could be a role for him on the Blue Jays’ 26-man roster in 2025, albeit as someone who’ll be out of minor-league options competing for one of the lone bench spots that’ll likely be available.
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2024-08-29T19:18:11Z dg43tfdfdgfd