THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS AND THEIR PITCHING PIPELINE
The Toronto Blue Jays just (potentially) added 11 pitchers to their system, including some expected to come fast and a couple of high-upside plays. It occurred to me to try and game out how their various starting pitching prospects might arrive and begin contributing to the team. Obviously, a project like this involves including a lot of unprovable assumptions so here are some caveats, not offered as a prediction but as a way to make the task manageable.
First, I’ll assume (only for the sake of this exercise) that no new major league (or Major League-ready) pitcher will join the organization in the next few years. This is obviously wrong, but you can’t possibly predict when and how you will be done before you start even if you simply assume that one of the current guys is re-signed. So I’m postulating that, for example, when Chris Bassitt’s contract is up, his turn in the rotation comes open.
Similarly, I have to assume good health. No new injuries for anyone mentioned, and no unexpected surprises for those already hurt (i.e. that Macko will come off the Injured List relatively soon and carry on along the same trajectory he was on). Of course, if they announced Friday that he needs elbow surgery then what I’ll say about him in this article has been set back a year. But what can you do?
Third, I’m only mentioning starters because MiLB relievers are just a very volatile cohort, and a guy who looks great striking out 18 batters per-nine in High-A may never actually put on a Major League uniform. However, some of these guys mentioned will end up relieving in the big leagues, so when I say a given guy could arrive in the majors in 2026, that doesn’t necessarily mean stepping into the rotation, right away or ever.
So the format is ordered by ETA. Not necessarily by level but by when it’s reasonable to say “This guy is a legit candidate to step into the rotation.” I’ll also not spend much, if any, time on a guy who might pass through the staff like Wes Parsons and wouldn’t be even a season-long solution, let alone long-term.
Reasonably set for 2025, of course, are Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Yariel Rodrigez. I’m assuming Berrios picks up his option and has four more years under contract. Rodrigez with options likewise. Gausman departs after 2026, Bassitt after 2025. This implies the Blue Jays HAVE to add someone next year for at least one season until they feel like Alek Manoah is ready to return following Tommy John surgery. Speaking of Manoah, he’s a free agent after 2027. Let’s pencil Manoah into Bassitt’s spot at least in 2026 and I’ll let you do the math in your head on how these young prospects might work their way into that group.
Rickey Tiedemann – 2025, in theory, there’s a world where he could break camp with them if this injury is minor and he’s fierce afterwards. Much more likely would be midseason or so, depending on when the first real opportunity appears.
Adam Macko – Spring 2026, conceivable that if events move right maybe late season 2025.
Trent Wallace – Spring 2026, same caveat as above but some reporting suggests he’s eventually going into the ‘pen. This would maybe move up the timing some, and it remains to be seen if we’re talking a once-through-the-order guy or just your standard lefty reliever. Slower than this if we’re trying to keep him starting because the next guy probably passes him if that happens.
Trey Yesavage – 2026 All the commentary suggests a very fast mover. I won’t hold hope for Spring 2026, but real possibility later in the season if an opportunity arises.
Lazaro Estrada – 2026, timing uncertain. Similar profile to Wallace but he’s not a lefty so the progression might be a bit slower. If he ends up in relief (some think likely) your hopeful outcome would be a guy who can do what Trevor Richards has been doing.
Ryan Jennings – late 2026, assuming he’s going to be a little slower for them to assume his destiny is in the bullpen. You might envision him as a Bowden Francis (when Francis was pitching well) in terms of how they move and use him.
Kendry Rojas – 2027, kinda reluctant to say spring simply because he’s a bit more raw than the two behind him, but he also may have a better ceiling if it comes together. Plus, if things go well to this point, there’s Berrios, Manoah, and Rodriguez with Ricky T and Yesavage in there and 2-4 guys who got there faster to sort out. So maybe just repeating Triple-A until the moment arrives.
Connor O’Halloran – 2027, similarly situated to Rojas and any of these three who’re now in Vancouver could take another step and distinguish himself from the others but developmentally and age, they are similarly situated.
Juron Watts Brown – 2027, see above. Probably a bit higher possibility of moving to the bullpen along the way.
Khal Stephen – 2027. Said to be similarly polished in terms of development to Yesavage, but his stuff isn’t as good. So a faster mover, but not so fast maybe as to leapfrog the cohort above. I could see him catching up with them in a year or so, but maybe he does pass them by.
Fernando Perez – 2028, probably spring. Good enough not to need to repeat a level, and young enough not to be rushed (particularly given what’s ahead of him.
Landon Maroudis – 2028, something like mid-year? He seemed to be (in a TINY sample) a bit more polished than Berriera before the injury and may have a bit shorter recovery.
Brandon Barriera – late 2028 or spring ’29. See above. For both of these I’m thinking mostly one level a year unless they force a faster promotion.
Johnny King – ’29, maybe not spring, and god knows I can hardly project a leaner development curve for a guy who’s 17 today. The further away these guys are, the more uncertain the path. But at one level per year, you’re looking at 2029.
Nolan Perry – He’s doing well enough I’ll mention him, but he’s the lowest draft pick here so he’s sort of a placeholder here for himself and a few others (well-regarded Carson Messian if they sign him, this year’s fifth-rounder Jackson Wentworth, or someone we’re not even looking at yet. I hesitate to date this one except to say 2029 or later unless someone finds another gear.
Yes I know I didn’t mention Chad Dallas, CJ Van Eck, and a few others – who have not convinced me that they will make any extended contribution (other than being AAA depth).
Spring training in ’26 and ’27 should be pretty interesting.
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2024-07-17T16:14:22Z dg43tfdfdgfd