THE BLUE JAYS NEED TO HEAVILY INVEST IN THEIR BULLPEN THIS OFF-SEASON
It’s no secret that the bullpen has been a problem for the Blue Jays this season. But when Chris Black of Sportsnet posted on X a few days ago that this cast of characters has been the worst bullpen in franchise history, that put into perspective how disastrous these relievers have been.
Even the early expansion era Blue Jays bullpens weren’t this bad statistically. While most will point towards the lacklustre lineup why this season went sideways for the Blue Jays, an equal amount of blame can be placed upon the underperformance of their relief pitchers.
There isn’t one all-encompassing metric to tell us how many games the bullpen cost the Blue Jays this year, but their collective -2.6 fWAR is far and away the worst in the majors this year and the worst single season mark in the club’s history.
Their 1.49 HR/9 isn’t only the worst in MLB, it’s also the worst mark in a single Blue Jays season. The rate at which this bullpen gives up big flies is unprecedented. It can’t be chalked up to bad batted ball luck; the bullpen is flat out terrible.
If you thought the 2021 reliever performances were awful — which featured appearances by Joaquim Soria, Jeremy Beasley, Brad Hand, Jacob Barnes, Rafael Dolis and Tyler Chatwood — this reliever core said: “Hold my beer.”
The Blue Jays have some payroll coming off the books heading into the offseason, but they don’t have a seemingly infinite payroll ceiling like the Yankees or the Mets. In an ideal world, the Blue Jays would invest in reinforcements for the starting lineup, rebuilding the bullpen and adding some pitching depth. But that won’t be the case, so sacrifices will need to be made somewhere.
The emphasis on run prevention didn’t help the Blue Jays a great deal this year, but they need to invest in reshaping the bullpen this offseason via trade and free agency. And they need to invest more heavily in reshaping the bullpen this offseason via trade and free agency than most would believe.
Not that the Blue Jays should run back their position player core intact for next year, but one surprising aspect about this team over the last 30 days is they have the third best offense by wRC+. It’s been an unorthodox group of players who have carried this team, but they’ve been capable in the second half.
Add to that a (hopefully) healthy Bo Bichette, and this lineup should perform better next season. They still need reinforcements, protection for Vladimir Guerreo Jr. with a middle of the order bat, but the position player shopping list may not be as long as most think.
To me, the area where the Blue Jays can turn things around in a hurry is by raising the floor on the quality of relief pitchers they have. It’s easier said than done, but this front office has course-corrected in the past and rebuilt a bullpen on the fly.
At this point, the only relievers who can say they have a job with the Blue Jays next year are Chad Green, Genesis Cabrera and Brendan Little. It’s a longshot, but Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson may be non-tender candidates, so there’s a potential for a lot of turnover from one year to another.
The Blue Jays could fill one of these reliever roles internally by moving Yariel Rodriguez to the bullpen, so these last few starts of the season could sway the front office one way or another which role Rodriguez will occupy in 2025.
It’s a small sample size, but Ryan Yarbrough has looked solid in a handful of appearances and the Blue Jays would be wise to try to re-sign him for next year. His ability to throw multiple innings would suit the team well as a reliable swingman or bulk guy.
I wouldn’t expect the Blue Jays to shop at the top of the market for relievers like Tanner Scott, Clay Holmes, Kenley Jansen or Carlos Estevez, but it would benefit the Jays to throw multiple darts at the mid-tier reliever dart board like Paul Sewald, Dylan Floro, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson and Shelby Miller.
Signing a few veteran arms would help stabilize the bullpen, but trading some of the surplus of position players could help solve two problems at once. It’s hard to imagine all of Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez and Nathan Lukes carving out roster spots, so making a position player for reliever trade feels like it’s in the cards for the Blue Jays.
Everyone knows bullpens are volatile, which is why it’s a dangerous game poaching the best relief arms on the free agent market. But a combination of some under-the-radar signings, some trades and the emergence of one or two depth guys could help this bullpen look miles different in 2025.
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2024-09-13T12:24:11Z dg43tfdfdgfd